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Mar 09, 2026

Washington Predicted Trump Would Endorse Cornyn. Washington Predicts Lots of Things.

The smart set in Washington has been waiting for Donald Trump to endorse John Cornyn in the Texas Senate race the way a group of meteorologists waits for rain that they themselves predicted. They were quite certain it would arrive. They were only unsure about the exact timing.

First they said Trump would endorse Cornyn before the primary. Then they said it would happen right after the primary. Then they said it would happen after the runoff field was set.

Now it has been a week.

Still no endorsement.

At this point the DC political class is staring at the sky, holding an umbrella, and wondering why they’re getting sunburned.

The original theory from the capital’s professional prognosticators was simple. Cornyn is a senior Republican senator. He has the blessing of leadership. He has spent decades doing the things senators do in Washington, which mostly involve attending meetings, issuing statements, and explaining why whatever just happened was a victory for the American people.

Surely, they said, Trump would want stability. Surely he would want a reliable Republican vote in the Senate. Surely he would want the candidate who looks like the sort of man who owns several pairs of reading glasses and uses all of them.

Therefore, the endorsement would come.

Except Donald Trump has many political qualities. Predictability is not among them.

The other candidate in the race is Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and a man who approaches controversy the way a Labrador approaches tennis balls. He has had investigations, lawsuits, headlines, and a political life that resembles a demolition derby conducted entirely in courtrooms.

The Washington view of Paxton is simple: too messy, too risky, too unpredictable.

Which is precisely the sort of résumé that tends to do surprisingly well in Republican primaries these days.

Trump knows this. Trump understands the modern Republican electorate in a way that terrifies consultants who bill by the hour.

So instead of rushing to endorse Cornyn the way the smart set predicted, Trump has done something much more unsettling to them.

He has waited.

And waiting, in politics, is information.

If Trump were eager to rescue Cornyn, he would have already done it. Trump is not known for subtlety when he wants someone to win. When he decides to swing the hammer, the hammer tends to swing immediately and with the force of a bowling ball dropped from a fifth-floor balcony.

Instead we have silence.

This has produced three possible explanations.

The first is the simplest. Trump may simply not like John Cornyn very much. Cornyn has criticized Trump in the past. He supported bipartisan gun legislation that annoyed the Republican base. At one point Trump even called him a “RINO,” which in modern Republican politics is less an insult than a warning label.

The second explanation is that Trump understands the political terrain in Texas better than the consultants do. Paxton has deep support among the MAGA grassroots. Cornyn has strong support among the type of Republicans who subscribe to policy newsletters and believe the Senate should function as a deliberative body.

Trump’s voters tend not to subscribe to policy newsletters.

Endorsing Cornyn would place Trump on the side of the Republican establishment against a candidate who is wildly popular with the party’s populist wing. That is a complicated place for Trump to stand.

The third explanation is the most entertaining and therefore the most plausible.

Trump enjoys leverage.

By withholding an endorsement, he keeps both candidates dancing for his approval. Cornyn cannot assume he has the president’s support. Paxton cannot claim it either. Both must continue making their case. Both must continue flattering Trump, praising Trump, and possibly offering Trump the sort of political concessions that Washington insiders politely refer to as “coordination.”

Meanwhile the consultants in Washington are left doing what consultants hate most.

They are guessing.

This is uncomfortable because the consultants had already written the script for this race. Cornyn would consolidate the establishment. Trump would endorse him. Paxton would fade away. The party would unite. Everyone would congratulate themselves for their strategic brilliance and go back to arguing about polling cross-tabs.

Instead the script has been misplaced.

And so the smart set is left confronting the uncomfortable possibility that they have once again misunderstood the political environment they claim to manage.

It would not be the first time.

For the better part of a decade, the political experts of Washington have been explaining Donald Trump to the American people with the confidence of medieval doctors diagnosing plague. They have theories, charts, and an impressive vocabulary of political science terminology.

They are just frequently wrong.

Which brings us back to the missing endorsement.

Maybe Trump will endorse Cornyn tomorrow. Maybe he will endorse Paxton. Maybe he will wait another week and enjoy the spectacle.

But one thing already seems clear.

The people who were absolutely certain they knew what Trump would do are now absolutely certain they have no idea what he is going to do.

And if recent history is any guide, that probably means Trump is exactly where he wants to be.

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📍 WHERE IS LARRY TODAY?

⏰ 5:00–9:00 AM

O’Connor and Company
WMAL Radio 105.9 FM — Washington, DC
🎧 Streaming at https://wmal.com

⏰ 12:00 PM

LARRY — Townhall Media
📺 Streaming live: https://www.youtube.com/@LARRYwithLarryOConnor/streams

🎙️ WMAL RADIO GUESTS

🕕 6:05 AM – SEAN KENNEDY

Virginians for Safe Communities

TOPIC:
Descano and the death of Fairfax County resident Stephanie Minter, including the broader concerns about prosecution policies and dropped charges.

🕖 7:05 AM – JOE DIGENOVA

Legal analyst and former U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia

TOPIC:
Legal implications surrounding sanctuary policies, ICE detainers, and prosecutorial discretion in the Fairfax murder case.

🕢 7:35 AM – NICK MINOCK

Reporter – WJLA

TOPIC:
Latest reporting on Fairfax Commonwealth’s Attorney Steve Descano and questions about why prior charges against Abdul Jalloh were dropped before the bus stop murder.

🕗 8:05 AM – PHIL WEGMANN

White House Correspondent – RealClearPolitics

TOPIC:
Latest developments from the White House, SAVE Act negotiations, and the broader political landscape heading toward the midterms.

🗒️ LARRY’S SHOW PREP

📉 DEMOCRATS EVEN LESS POPULAR THAN AI

A new NBC poll shows the Democratic Party with a 30 / 52 favorable rating, putting them below nearly everything measured in the survey.

Only one thing polled worse.

Iran.

Poll breakdown circulating online:

• Trump: 41 / 53
• GOP: 37 / 51
• Kamala Harris: 34 / 51
• Gavin Newsom: 27 / 45
• ICE: 38 / 56
• Artificial Intelligence: 26 / 46
• Democratic Party: 30 / 52
• Iran: 8 / 61

🔗 Allan Smith post:
https://t.co/9N1n7UjcTq

🔗 Poll breakdown:
https://t.co/Lq9rpzlGr3

🛢 THE SPR LIE

Chuck Schumer is now demanding Trump release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The same reserve Biden drained in 2021–2022 to attempt to lower gas prices.

Important context:

• Schumer blocked a CARES Act provision that would have refilled the SPR at $24 per barrel
• Congress must approve funding to refill the reserve
• Democrats rejected the refill opportunity when oil prices were historically low

🔗 Schumer demand clip:
https://t.co/b469BnoU8l

🔗 CARES Act refill reminder:
https://t.co/b469BnoU8l

🔗 Biden SPR explanation:
https://t.co/qlLKsi9yeO

🌍 OIL MARKET SHIFT

Insurance underwriters in London are reportedly preparing to resume coverage for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a shift in energy market risk calculations.

🔗 Update:
https://t.co/b469BnoU8l

💣 IED ATTACK IN NEW YORK CITY

The NYPD bomb squad confirmed that a device deployed during protests outside Gracie Mansion was an actual improvised explosive device capable of causing serious harm.

Two arrests have reportedly been made.

🔗 NYPD statement:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/police-recover-third-device-ongoing-manhattan-ied-investigation-two-arrests

🧠 MEDIA SPIN ON THE NYC ATTACK

Critics say legacy media coverage initially framed the incident misleadingly, implying devices were connected to protesters rather than attackers.

🔗 Media coverage critique:
https://t.co/5TSuWSFpWm

🔗 Analysis of reporting:
https://t.co/5TSuWSFpWm

🗳 SAVE ACT SHOWDOWN

President Trump reportedly told allies he will not sign other legislation until the SAVE America Act is passed.

The bill would require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections.

🔗 Report:
https://t.co/Qfh0WU6Mxs

🚨 DESCANO STILL DEFLECTING ON FAIRFAX MURDER

Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney Steve Descano continues facing scrutiny after the murder of Stephanie Minter.

Questions remain about why multiple charges against illegal immigrant Abdul Jalloh were dropped before the killing.

🔗 Nick Minock report:
https://t.co/xFAqxJYfQE

📊 CDC DATA ON HIV

A CDC survey circulating online claims nearly half of transgender women surveyed tested HIV positive, fueling debate over public health policy and reporting.

🔗 Source post:
https://t.co/CUo8PRd3sg